Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at the IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok on 16 October, called AI the most consequential change of his lifetime but warned the path will be rough: demand rises first, with a positive supply effect only in the medium term. He said the Fed raised rates 0.25% to 3.75-4.00% on 16 September and gave no guidance on the rest of the year, ahead of the 27-28 October FOMC. Global central banks are tightening together and inflation is a shared problem, with energy prices pushed up by the Middle East war. For a Thai SME, the practical read is that US rates may stay firm and no clear signal is coming, so avoid locking in assumptions about borrowing costs or the baht's direction based on rate expectations.