Brent crude rose above US$91 a barrel on 19-20 Aug 2026 after the US-Iran ceasefire expired, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed. UOB Kay Hian thinks $100 is unlikely but possible if Middle East supply is hit. Thailand posted a Q2 current account deficit of 600 billion baht (over 12% of GDP), and the baht has already fallen 4.7% year to date, so the finance minister and analysts expect further pressure. For SMEs: budget for higher fuel, transport and imported-input costs, and consider how a weaker baht will affect imported stock prices and supplier quotes.