Christine Lagarde, head of the European Central Bank, said at a CNN event in Bangkok that Middle East war is pushing up energy prices and the risk of oil and gas shortages in Europe. The ECB is watching for second-round effects, mainly wage increases, but has not yet seen them clearly. She gave no signal on interest rates and said policy will depend on incoming data, with the 2% inflation target kept. For a Thai SME this is background only: it concerns European policy, not Thai rates or costs. The useful signal is that energy-driven inflation is a global risk, so keep an eye on oil and fuel costs in your own budget.