The Bank of Thailand says Q2 2026 slowed because of higher energy prices and fewer tourists from the Middle East and Europe. Hotels and restaurants saw activity fall, and private consumption weakened as living costs rose. Q3 trade may stay firm only temporarily, supported by government handouts (Thai Chuay Thai Plus and the state welfare card). Tourism-linked businesses are expected to shrink further. The 2026 growth forecast is 2.3%. For a small business, plan for softer tourist-area demand, higher energy and input costs, and short-lived stimulus-driven sales.