The Thai Shippers' Council (TSCA) says exports could grow 8–10% or more in 2026 if the Thai-US Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) lands well and geopolitical risks do not worsen. It warns that H1 growth was driven partly by electronics and tech goods, so Q3 and Q4 need close watching. For SMEs, track the ART outcome for your US-bound products, especially food and agricultural goods; plan for volatile baht, energy, freight and marine insurance costs; and avoid over-relying on one hot export sector.