A survey of 167 businesses in Chiang Mai, Lamphun and Lampang (Aug 2026) puts the overall confidence index at 0.42, below the 0.50 steady line. Costs for energy, electricity, fuel, wages and raw materials are the main drag. Wholesale and retail is weakest (0.30 in Q3, 0.40 expected in Q4); construction is at 0.33. Tourism is expected to rise to 0.60 in Q4 as high season arrives. Plan Q4 stock, staffing and pricing around a slow start to the high season rather than a sharp rebound, and watch cost pressure on margins.