The US launched "Operation Economic Outcast" on 24 August 2026 to cut Iran off economically. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Attha Pisanwanich (Rangsit University) says if China's Iranian oil purchases are curbed and Iran restricts Hormuz shipping, Brent could reach $100-110/barrel, and above $110 if Hormuz closes fully. He estimates Thai energy imports could rise about 122,000 million baht, with inflation at 3.2-3.8% and fishing and transport costs up 5-8%. For SMEs: review fuel, freight and energy cost assumptions for the rest of 2026, and consider pricing clauses for cost pass-through. This is a scenario analysis, not a forecast.