Brokers expect Q4 2026 foreign arrivals to rise, helped by Chinese demand, 14 new air routes added in August and flat seat capacity versus a 5% contraction in Q3. August arrivals fell 3% year-on-year, a smaller drop than June's 21% annualised fall. Southeast Asian arrivals were down 13%, mainly Cambodia and Malaysia. The 4-billion-baht tourism stimulus reportedly slipped from late 2026 to around April 2027, which could help hotels in the low season. For hotels and tour operators, plan for a modest Q4 lift, with China the main source of growth. Watch the IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok on Oct 12-18.