Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech was read by markets as a signal toward a rate hike, lifting the odds of a 0.25% hike at the 15-16 September meeting from about 35% to 57%. US 2-year yields rose 14 bps and 30-year yields 3 bps. The author still expects the Fed to hold rates all year, with the 11 September CPI release as the key data point. For Thai businesses, the wider rate gap is adding pressure on the baht, which weakened to about 33.1 per dollar from 32.6 the week before, and emerging-market assets including Thai stocks may stay volatile. Watch import costs and dollar-linked pricing, and avoid locking in unhedged dollar exposure until the CPI data is out.