Kasikorn Research estimates floods from 25 Sep to 14 Oct 2026 damaged about 12,000 million baht of main-season rice output, covering roughly 1.5 million rai (about 2.5% of national main-season area, 19% of Chao Phraya basin). Rice prices could rise about 18% year on year. Further rain on 5-7 and 11-14 Oct and extra water releases from the Chao Phraya dam could raise levels in 11 low-lying central provinces by a further 40-70 cm. Restaurant and food businesses should expect higher rice costs and plan supplier contracts now; businesses in flood-hit central provinces should check logistics and stock exposure.