The World Bank raised its 2026 Thai GDP growth forecast to 2.0% from 0.7 points lower in April, helped by AI-related exports and data-centre investment. It projects 2.3% in 2027 and 2.4% in 2028, with inflation falling to about 1.0% next year as energy pressure eases. Risks are tilting downside: a strong El Niño late this year into next could cut farm output (damage up to 62 billion baht, farm income down about 8%), and household debt near 87% of GDP leaves little buffer. For SMEs, plan for weaker rural and agri-linked demand, and keep cash reserves given high household debt.